============================================================ Hobart (Station 94005) ============================================================ Sounding Time : 2025-11-14 00:00 UTC Type : 00Z (BOM 13 Nov 2300 UTC / 14 Nov 1000 AEST morning) Data Source : University of Wyoming === CAP DETECTION === Inversion detected: 769→712 hPa (ΔT=+8.4K) — diagnostic only No cap detected ===================== ⚡ SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSESSMENT ---------------------------------- 🟡 OVERALL THREAT: MARGINAL 🧊 Hail Threat : CONDITIONAL - Hail possible IF initiated 💨 Wind Threat : CONDITIONAL - Strong winds IF initiated 📊 Storm Mode : Sub-convective (insufficient CAPE) ============================================================ 🚨 AUTOMATED SEVERE WEATHER FLAGS ============================================================ ⚡ SHEAR-DOMINANT SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT - Organized storms likely severe 🇦🇺 AUSTRALIAN SEVERE ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT ------------------------------------------- 🇦🇺 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATOLOGY (Allen et al. 2011): CAPE × S06^1.67 = 483 ✗ Below severe threshold (18,000) ⚡ EXCEPTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT: 0-6km shear: 25.9 m/s (EXCEEDS BoM 'very favorable' 18 m/s) → VERY FAVORABLE for supercells → Shear-dominant environment: CAPE modest (2 J/kg) but shear compensates → Allen et al. (2011): Strong shear compensates for modest CAPE in Australia 🌊 COASTAL INITIATION MECHANISM: Morning sounding + hobart coastal location Sea-breeze convergence expected 1400-1800 local time Allen et al. (2011): Storms typically 10-30km inland from coast → Monitor coastal convergence zones this afternoon === PARCEL BASIS === Surface Parcel : T=11.1°C, Td=2.1°C Mixed-Layer Parcel : Lowest 100 hPa average Most-Unstable : 708 hPa (max θe in lowest 300 hPa) ==================== ⚠️ GIGO AUDIT: WARNINGS DETECTED --------------------------------- Status: WARNING - 2 issue(s) found ℹ️ Diurnal heating: Surface warmed 3.5°C since morning sounding (11.1°C → 14.6°C) 🚨 UNPRECEDENTED EVENT WARNING - Conditions OUTSIDE training data range → ⚠️ Extremely stable profile - convection very unlikely → ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ → FORECAST RELIABILITY WARNING (Allen et al. Model Error Framework): → One or more parameters exceed historical climatology ranges → Australian severe weather thresholds derived from 2003-2010 dataset → Forecast discriminants may NOT apply in unprecedented conditions → → PARAMETERS OUTSIDE TRAINING RANGE: → • 850-500 lapse=3.4°C/km BELOW training range (<4.0) → → REDUCED CONFIDENCE: Use physical reasoning, not just threshold values → Reference: Allen et al. 'Model error in weather and climate forecasting' → ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ Note: Wyoming data may differ from actual BOM observations. Consider cross-checking with official BOM products. 🌡️ TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ----------------------- Open-Meteo Forecast • Max Today : 17.0°C (+2.4°C from current) Sounding Physics • Max Possible : N/A (thermodynamic ceiling) • Heating Needed : No cap or EL constraint • Confidence : N/A • Min Estimate : -3.9°C • Note : Radiative cooling: 2.5°C/hr × 6h (inland) → CAP STATUS: UNCAPPED — No cap detected - storms possible if triggered 🌧️ RAINFALL POTENTIAL ---------------------- Potential : MINIMAL Estimated Range : 0-5 mm Confidence : HIGH Note : K=N/A, PWAT=10mm, MLCAPE=2 — storms likely if triggered 🔥 CAP ANALYSIS -------------- Cap Status : No cap detected Surface Temp : 11.1°C LFC : 867 hPa (1116m AGL) ⚡ INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ------------------------ MLCAPE (100mb) : 2 J/kg (mixed-layer (100 hPa), preferred) (Weak) MLCIN (100mb) : 8 J/kg SBCAPE : 74 J/kg (surface, morning-surface parcel — likely inflated) (Weak) Note: Morning sounding — SBCAPE inflated by surface parcel. Use MLCAPE unless boundary layer remains unmixed. Lifted Index (LI) : +14.5°C (surface) (Stable) MLLI (100mb) : +17.0°C (mixed-layer (100 hPa), preferred) (Stable) LCL Height : 1116m AGL (878 hPa) LFC : 867 hPa EL : 759 hPa 📋 PARCEL DIAGNOSTICS -------------------- Surface Parcel: CAPE: 74 J/kg | LI: +14.5°C CIN: 0 J/kg LCL: 1116m LFC: 867 hPa Mixed-Layer (100mb): CAPE: 2 J/kg | LI: +17.0°C CIN: 8 J/kg LCL: 1155m LFC: 840 hPa EL: 780 hPa Most-Unstable (300mb): CAPE: 0 J/kg at 708 hPa CIN: 0 J/kg LCL: 9325m LFC: None EL: nan hPa 📊 PARCEL COMPARISON TABLE ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Parcel Type CAPE (J/kg) CIN (J/kg) LCL (m) LFC (hPa) LI (°C) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Surface 74 0 1116 867 +14.5 Mixed-Layer (100mb) 2 8 1155 840 +17.0 Most-Unstable (708) 0 0 9325 None N/A ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 💡 PARCEL SELECTION GUIDANCE (ESTOFEX 1.2.4): → ESTOFEX uses SURFACE parcel - fallback when ML/MU insignificant → Monitor for diurnal heating changes 🎯 CAPE CONVERGENCE ENSEMBLE (Multi-Method Validation) ----------------------------------------------------- ℹ️ METHODOLOGY: Parcel table values (SBCAPE, MLCAPE, MUCAPE) = GROUND TRUTH Convergence 'Recommended' values = VALIDATION (median across methods) PURPOSE: Test if CAPE calculations are stable across method variations - High convergence: Parcel table values are RELIABLE - Low convergence: CAPE estimates are METHOD-DEPENDENT (use with caution) WHICH VALUE TO USE? → Use PARCEL TABLE values for forecasting (primary calculation) → Use CONVERGENCE for confidence assessment (validation only) Overall CAPE Confidence: VERY LOW [**---] (2/5) ⚠ Uncertainty in: Surface CAPE, Mixed-layer CAPE, Most-unstable CAPE Surface CAPE: Parcel table: 74 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 75 J/kg (validation, 1 methods) Mixed-Layer CAPE: Parcel table: 2 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 3 J/kg (validation, 3 methods) ⚠ Divergent: mixed_50hPa=7 Most-Unstable CAPE: Parcel table: 0 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 0 J/kg (validation, 1 methods) ⚠️ WARNING: Low convergence indicates CAPE estimates are METHOD-DEPENDENT → Forecast uncertainty is HIGH - results vary with calculation choices → Use MEDIAN values with caution - consider full range of estimates 🌡️ ESTOFEX THERMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS ---------------------------------- Primary Parcel : Surface CAPE : 74 J/kg CIN : 0 J/kg LCL : 1116 m AGL LFC : 867 hPa EL : 759 hPa 700-500 hPa Lapse : 6.4 °C/km 850-500 hPa Lapse : 3.4 °C/km Surface T-Td : 9.0 °C (marginal) Cap Status : No significant cap 📊 INTERPRETATION: • Negligible instability - convection unlikely • ⚠ CAPE alone insufficient - requires lift mechanism and wind shear • ⚠ Parcel theory limitations: ignores entrainment, water loading, dynamics 📉 DOWNDRAFT PARAMETERS ---------------------- DCAPE : 0 J/kg (Low) Microburst Risk : Conditional: MODERATE (requires initiation) Type : Dry (rain evaporates before reaching ground) Max Gust Potential : 60-70 km/h 🌀 WIND SHEAR & HELICITY ----------------------- 0-1km Bulk Shear : 9.7 m/s 0-3km Bulk Shear : 20.7 m/s 0-6km Bulk Shear : 25.9 m/s Bunkers Right Mover: 18.3 m/s from 258° 0-1km SRH : 65 m²/s² 0-3km SRH : 213 m²/s² 📊 COMPOSITE PARAMETERS ---------------------- STP (Tornado) : 0.00 (MLCAPE) / 0.03 (SBCAPE) → Minimal tornado risk SCP (Supercell) : 0.00 (MLCAPE) / 0.07 (SBCAPE) → Minimal supercell risk EHI 0-1km : 0.03 → Minimal EHI 0-3km : 0.10 → Minimal SHIP (Sig. Hail) : 0.00 (LOW) Freezing Level : 1017 m (1.02 km) 500-700mb Lapse : 6.4 °C/km Note : SHIP is NOT hail size - it's a probability discriminant (SPC) SigSvr (Craven) : 55 (LOW) Formula : MLCAPE × 0-6km shear Reference : Craven et al. (2003) - Simple product discriminant 0-3km CAPE : 140 J/kg (HIGH - favorable for tornadoes) Note : Low-level CAPE favors tornado formation (SPC) 📈 TRADITIONAL INDICES --------------------- K-Index : N/A Total Totals : 27 Precip. Water : 10.4 mm Surface T/Td : 11.1°C / 2.1°C RADIO PROPAGATION (VHF/UHF) --------------------------- Propagation Mode : DUCTING DX Potential Score : 53/100 (GOOD) Range Factor : 4-6× normal dn/dz Gradient : -296 N-units/km (STRONG) Max Refractivity : 308 N-units Ducting Layer : 1335-1435m (THIN DUCT) Description : Trapped wave propagation - exceptional range Affected Bands : • 6m (50 MHz) : STRONG ducting - exceptional DX (500+ km) • 2m (144 MHz) : VERY STRONG ducting - most affected band • 70cm (432 MHz) : VERY STRONG ducting - excellent trapping • 23cm (1.3 GHz) : STRONG ducting - significant enhancement Note: Shallow duct — Higher frequencies (2m/70cm) trap most effectively DX Range Estimates (10m antenna height): ✗ 6m ( 50 MHz): Not trapped (wavelength > duct cutoff) ✗ 2m ( 144 MHz): Not trapped (wavelength > duct cutoff) ✓ 70cm ( 432 MHz): 448 km (24.3× LOS) - 1 mode(s), GOOD ✓ 23cm (1296 MHz): 500 km (27.1× LOS) - 22 mode(s), EXCELLENT Best Bands : 70cm, 23cm Note : Assumes duct extends along path — verify with propagation maps N-Profile plot saved: n_profiles/hobart_20251114_0000Z.png 📸 VISUALIZATION --------------- Wind barbs (BASIC): 1657 levels, step=41, plotting 40 barbs Basic Skew-T saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_plots/hobart_20251114_0000Z.png Wind barbs (ENHANCED): 1657 levels, step=41, plotting 40 barbs Enhanced Skew-T saved: skewt_plots_enhanced/hobart_20251114_0000Z.png Hodograph saved: hodographs/hobart_20251114_0000Z.png Generating afternoon forecast (heated sounding)... Current: 11.1°C → Forecast: 17.0°C Wind barbs (HEATED): 1657 levels, step=41, plotting 40 barbs ✓ Heated forecast saved: skewt_plots_heated/hobart_20251114_0000Z.png ============================================================ Hobart - AFTERNOON FORECAST ============================================================ Base Sounding : 2025-11-14 00:00 UTC (00Z morning) Forecast Time : Afternoon (peak heating) Forecast Method: Heated parcel (constant mixing ratio) ⚠ OPTIMISTIC ASSUMPTION: Moisture constant → CAPE is UPPER BOUND Surface Heating: 11.1°C → 17.0°C (+5.9°C) === AFTERNOON PARCEL BASIS === Heated Mixed-Layer Parcel (well-mixed BL): T=17.0°C, Td=-0.6°C Moisture Method: Constant mixing ratio (OPTIMISTIC) → Assumes no moisture reduction with heating → CAPE values represent UPPER BOUND Environmental Profile: Boundary layer heated (lowest ~100 hPa) → Temperature: Linear taper from surface ΔT → 0°C at BL top → Dewpoint: UNCHANGED (constant mixing ratio in environment) → Free troposphere: UNCHANGED from morning =============================== ⚡ AFTERNOON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSESSMENT -------------------------------------------- 🟡 OVERALL THREAT: Slight 🧊 Hail Threat : Slight 💨 Wind Threat : Slight 📊 Storm Mode : Sub-convective (insufficient CAPE) 🔥 AFTERNOON CAP ANALYSIS ------------------------ Cap Status : No cap detected Break Temperature : N/A Forecast Max : 17.0°C CIN (inhibition) : 0 J/kg ⚡ AFTERNOON INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ---------------------------------- MLCAPE : 65 J/kg (mixed-layer) (Weak) MLCIN : 0 J/kg MLLI : +11.7°C (mixed-layer) (Stable) SBCAPE : 65 J/kg (surface, for reference) (Weak) SBCIN : 0 J/kg 📊 MORNING → AFTERNOON COMPARISON -------------------------------- Temperature : 11.1°C → 17.0°C (+5.9°C) Dewpoint : 2.1°C → -0.6°C MLCAPE : 2 → 65 J/kg (+63) MLCIN : 8 → 0 J/kg MLLI : +17.0°C → +11.7°C 🌧️ AFTERNOON RAINFALL POTENTIAL -------------------------------- Potential : MINIMAL Estimated Range : 0-5 mm Confidence : HIGH Note : K=N/A, PWAT=10mm, MLCAPE=65 — storms likely if triggered 📈 AFTERNOON COMPOSITE PARAMETERS -------------------------------- STP (Tornado) : 0.00 SCP (Supercell) : 0.00 EHI (0-1km) : 0.0 EHI (0-3km) : 0.1 🌀 WIND SHEAR & HELICITY ----------------------- Note: Wind profiles remain unchanged from morning sounding 0-1km Bulk Shear : 9.7 m/s 0-3km Bulk Shear : 20.7 m/s 0-6km Bulk Shear : 25.9 m/s 0-1km SRH : 65 m²/s² 0-3km SRH : 213 m²/s² 🔮 AFTERNOON FORECAST INTERPRETATION ----------------------------------- ⚪ Little to no instability expected ⚪ Thunderstorm development UNLIKELY ✓ Minimal cap - storms can initiate easily ✓ Heated forecast summary: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_analysis/hobart_20251114_0000Z_heated.txt SBCAPE: 74 → 65 J/kg Afternoon convection UNLIKELY (insufficient CAPE: 65 J/kg) Lifted Index: 11.7°C Analysis saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_analysis/hobart_20251114_0000Z.txt Public summary saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_analysis/hobart_20251114_0000Z_summary.txt ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────