============================================================ Darwin (Station 94120) ============================================================ Sounding Time : 2025-11-15 00:00 UTC Type : 00Z (BOM 14 Nov 2300 UTC / 15 Nov 1000 AEST morning) Data Source : University of Wyoming === CAP DETECTION === No cap detected ===================== ⚡ SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSESSMENT ---------------------------------- 🟢 MORNING: LOW (MLCAPE=1640 J/kg) 🟠 AFTERNOON: MODERATE (SBCAPE=4160 J/kg, conditional) 🧊 Hail Threat : LOW 💨 Wind Threat : LOW 📊 Storm Mode : Pulse storms / multicells (low shear) ============================================================ 🚨 AUTOMATED SEVERE WEATHER FLAGS ============================================================ ⚠️ SEVERE ENVIRONMENT DETECTED - Storms likely severe if initiated 🇦🇺 AUSTRALIAN SEVERE ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT ------------------------------------------- 🇦🇺 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATOLOGY (Allen et al. 2011): CAPE × S06^1.67 = 51,552 ✅ EXCEEDS severe threshold (18,000) → Hail >2cm, winds >90 km/h, or any tornado possible → POD: 90% IF initiation occurs 🌊 COASTAL INITIATION MECHANISM: Morning sounding + darwin coastal location Sea-breeze convergence expected 1400-1800 local time Allen et al. (2011): Storms typically 10-30km inland from coast → Monitor coastal convergence zones this afternoon 📅 MORNING SOUNDING (00Z = 10:00 AM local): Current CAPE: 1640 J/kg Lapse rates do not indicate strong afternoon CAPE increase → Monitor surface heating for potential changes === PARCEL BASIS === Surface Parcel : T=29.1°C, Td=25.7°C Mixed-Layer Parcel : Lowest 100 hPa average Most-Unstable : 1007 hPa (max θe in lowest 300 hPa) ==================== ⚠️ GIGO AUDIT: WARNINGS DETECTED --------------------------------- Status: WARNING - 4 issue(s) found ⚠ SBCAPE (4160) >> MLCAPE (1640) — morning sounding, surface parcel inflated ⚠ DCAPE=473 J/kg too low for significant microbursts ⚠ High CAPE (4160) + low shear (7.9 m/s) — Wyoming winds may be smoothed 🚨 UNPRECEDENTED EVENT WARNING - Conditions OUTSIDE training data range → Downgrade wind threat assessment → ⚠️ UNPRECEDENTED: SBCAPE exceeds 90th percentile - forecast discriminants may not apply → ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ → FORECAST RELIABILITY WARNING (Allen et al. Model Error Framework): → One or more parameters exceed historical climatology ranges → Australian severe weather thresholds derived from 2003-2010 dataset → Forecast discriminants may NOT apply in unprecedented conditions → → PARAMETERS OUTSIDE TRAINING RANGE: → • SBCAPE=4160 J/kg EXCEEDS training range (>3500) → → REDUCED CONFIDENCE: Use physical reasoning, not just threshold values → Reference: Allen et al. 'Model error in weather and climate forecasting' → ══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════ ⚠ CAPE (4160 J/kg) seems high for LI (-6.0°C) - possible data quality issue Note: Wyoming data may differ from actual BOM observations. Consider cross-checking with official BOM products. 🌡️ TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ----------------------- Open-Meteo Forecast • Max Today : 29.0°C (+1.8°C from current) Sounding Physics • Max Possible : 41.6°C (thermodynamic ceiling) • Max Realistic (operational): 34.0°C — Reason: SBCAPE≥2000 J/kg, coastal; Confidence: LOW (requires verification with boundary-layer evolution and local climatology) • ⚠ Thermodynamic ceiling far above realistic max — convective feedback/climatology likely limit heating. • Heating Needed : EL-based estimate (+12.5°C potential) • Confidence : MODERATE • Min Estimate : 20.1°C • Note : Radiative cooling: 1.5°C/hr × 6h (coastal) → CAP STATUS: UNCAPPED — No cap detected - storms possible if triggered 🌧️ RAINFALL POTENTIAL ---------------------- Potential : HIGH (conditional) Estimated Range : 30-50 mm Confidence : MODERATE Note : K=35, PWAT=64mm, MLCAPE=1640 — storms likely if triggered 🔥 CAP ANALYSIS -------------- Cap Status : No cap detected Surface Temp : 29.1°C LFC : 948 hPa (431m AGL) ⚡ INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ------------------------ MLCAPE (100mb) : 1640 J/kg (mixed-layer (100 hPa), preferred) (High) MLCIN (100mb) : 8 J/kg SBCAPE : 4160 J/kg (surface, morning-surface parcel — likely inflated) (EXTREME) Note: Morning sounding — SBCAPE inflated by surface parcel. Use MLCAPE unless boundary layer remains unmixed. Lifted Index (LI) : -6.0°C (surface) (Strong instability) MLLI (100mb) : -3.2°C (mixed-layer (100 hPa), preferred) (Weak instability) LCL Height : 431m AGL (958 hPa) LFC : 948 hPa EL : None (no buoyancy) 📋 PARCEL DIAGNOSTICS -------------------- Surface Parcel: CAPE: 4160 J/kg | LI: -6.0°C CIN: 0 J/kg LCL: 431m LFC: 948 hPa Mixed-Layer (100mb): CAPE: 1640 J/kg | LI: -3.2°C CIN: 8 J/kg LCL: 742m LFC: 871 hPa EL: 112 hPa Most-Unstable (300mb): CAPE: 4160 J/kg at 1007 hPa CIN: 0 J/kg LCL: 431m LFC: 948 hPa EL: nan hPa 📊 PARCEL COMPARISON TABLE ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Parcel Type CAPE (J/kg) CIN (J/kg) LCL (m) LFC (hPa) LI (°C) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Surface 4160 0 431 948 -6.0 Mixed-Layer (100mb) 1640 8 742 871 -3.2 Most-Unstable (1007) 4160 0 431 948 N/A ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 💡 PARCEL SELECTION GUIDANCE (ESTOFEX 1.2.4): → ESTOFEX uses MIXED-LAYER parcel - representative of boundary layer → Preferred for most convective environments 🎯 CAPE CONVERGENCE ENSEMBLE (Multi-Method Validation) ----------------------------------------------------- ℹ️ METHODOLOGY: Parcel table values (SBCAPE, MLCAPE, MUCAPE) = GROUND TRUTH Convergence 'Recommended' values = VALIDATION (median across methods) PURPOSE: Test if CAPE calculations are stable across method variations - High convergence: Parcel table values are RELIABLE - Low convergence: CAPE estimates are METHOD-DEPENDENT (use with caution) WHICH VALUE TO USE? → Use PARCEL TABLE values for forecasting (primary calculation) → Use CONVERGENCE for confidence assessment (validation only) Overall CAPE Confidence: VERY LOW [**---] (2/5) ⚠ Uncertainty in: Surface CAPE, Mixed-layer CAPE, Most-unstable CAPE Surface CAPE: Parcel table: 4160 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 4161 J/kg (validation, 1 methods) Mixed-Layer CAPE: Parcel table: 1640 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 1657 J/kg (validation, 3 methods) Stability: 73.7% (std/mean) → VERY LOW ⚠ Divergent: mixed_75hPa=0 Most-Unstable CAPE: Parcel table: 4160 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 4161 J/kg (validation, 1 methods) ⚠️ WARNING: Low convergence indicates CAPE estimates are METHOD-DEPENDENT → Forecast uncertainty is HIGH - results vary with calculation choices → Use MEDIAN values with caution - consider full range of estimates 🌡️ ESTOFEX THERMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS ---------------------------------- Primary Parcel : Mixed-Layer CAPE : 1640 J/kg CIN : 8 J/kg LCL : 742 m AGL LFC : 871 hPa EL : 112 hPa 700-500 hPa Lapse : 5.4 °C/km 850-500 hPa Lapse : 5.2 °C/km Surface T-Td : 3.4 °C ✓ favorable Cap Status : No significant cap 📊 INTERPRETATION: • Using Mixed-Layer parcel (preferred for daytime/well-mixed boundary layer) • Strong instability (1640 J/kg) - widespread convection likely • ✓ Favorable low-level moisture for convection • ⚠ CAPE alone insufficient - requires lift mechanism and wind shear • ⚠ Parcel theory limitations: ignores entrainment, water loading, dynamics 📉 DOWNDRAFT PARAMETERS ---------------------- DCAPE : 473 J/kg (Low) Max Downdraft V : 30.7 m/s (111 km/h) Formula : V_max = sqrt(2 × DCAPE) DCAPE Efficiency : 0.11 (Updraft-dominated) Ratio : DCAPE / CAPE Evaporative Cool : Moderate (Moderate T-Td spread) Microburst Risk : LOW-MODERATE Type : Wet (rain-loaded downdrafts) Max Gust Potential : 50-60 km/h if heavy rain core develops Note : Column too moist for strong microbursts 🌀 WIND SHEAR & HELICITY ----------------------- 0-1km Bulk Shear : 4.7 m/s 0-3km Bulk Shear : 5.1 m/s 0-6km Bulk Shear : 7.9 m/s Bunkers Right Mover: 11.1 m/s from 23° 0-1km SRH : 55 m²/s² 0-3km SRH : 119 m²/s² 📊 COMPOSITE PARAMETERS ---------------------- STP (Tornado) : 0.32 (MLCAPE) / 0.84 (SBCAPE) → Minimal (low shear) SCP (Supercell) : 0.75 (MLCAPE) / 1.90 (SBCAPE) → LOW supercell risk EHI 0-1km : 1.44 → LOW (shear 7.9 m/s limits organization) EHI 0-3km : 3.09 → MODERATE (high SRH but shear 7.9 m/s limits organization) SHIP (Sig. Hail) : 2.34 (HIGH - 2"+ hail likely) Freezing Level : 4941 m (4.94 km) 500-700mb Lapse : 5.4 °C/km Note : SHIP is NOT hail size - it's a probability discriminant (SPC) SigSvr (Craven) : 12926 (MODERATE) Formula : MLCAPE × 0-6km shear Reference : Craven et al. (2003) - Simple product discriminant 0-3km CAPE : 218 J/kg (VERY HIGH - strong low-level stretching) Note : Low-level CAPE favors tornado formation (SPC) 📈 TRADITIONAL INDICES --------------------- K-Index : 35 (Widespread thunderstorms, severe potential) Total Totals : 43 Precip. Water : 64.1 mm Surface T/Td : 29.1°C / 25.7°C ⚠️ TROPICAL LOCATION: K-Index (35) less reliable → Use PWAT (64.1 mm) + MLCAPE (1640 J/kg) + DCAPE instead → PWAT > 40 mm indicates strong moisture - storms possible with trigger 🌊 SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE NOTE → Morning sounding - storm initiation may require sea-breeze → Monitor coastal convergence zones in afternoon → Storms typically form 10-30 km inland from coast RADIO PROPAGATION (VHF/UHF) --------------------------- Propagation Mode : DUCTING DX Potential Score : 50/100 (GOOD) Range Factor : 4-6× normal dn/dz Gradient : -252 N-units/km (STRONG) Max Refractivity : 393 N-units Ducting Layer : 1449-1549m (THIN DUCT) Description : Trapped wave propagation - exceptional range Affected Bands : • 6m (50 MHz) : STRONG ducting - exceptional DX (500+ km) • 2m (144 MHz) : VERY STRONG ducting - most affected band • 70cm (432 MHz) : VERY STRONG ducting - excellent trapping • 23cm (1.3 GHz) : STRONG ducting - significant enhancement Note: Shallow duct — Higher frequencies (2m/70cm) trap most effectively DX Range Estimates (10m antenna height): ✗ 6m ( 50 MHz): Not trapped (wavelength > duct cutoff) ✗ 2m ( 144 MHz): Not trapped (wavelength > duct cutoff) ✓ 70cm ( 432 MHz): 448 km (24.3× LOS) - 1 mode(s), GOOD ✓ 23cm (1296 MHz): 500 km (27.1× LOS) - 18 mode(s), EXCELLENT Best Bands : 70cm, 23cm Note : Assumes duct extends along path — verify with propagation maps N-Profile plot saved: n_profiles/darwin_20251115_0000Z.png 📸 VISUALIZATION --------------- Wind barbs (BASIC): 1764 levels, step=44, plotting 40 barbs Basic Skew-T saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_plots/darwin_20251115_0000Z.png Wind barbs (ENHANCED): 1764 levels, step=44, plotting 40 barbs Enhanced Skew-T saved: skewt_plots_enhanced/darwin_20251115_0000Z.png Hodograph saved: hodographs/darwin_20251115_0000Z.png Heated forecast skipped: minimal heating expected (29.1°C → 29.0°C) Analysis saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_analysis/darwin_20251115_0000Z.txt Public summary saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_analysis/darwin_20251115_0000Z_summary.txt ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────