============================================================ Brisbane (Station 94578) ============================================================ Sounding Time : 2025-11-15 12:00 UTC Type : 12Z (BOM evening launch / 15 Nov 2200 AEST) Data Source : University of Wyoming === CAP DETECTION === Cap detected (parcel-comparison): depth=28 hPa (1009→981), ΔT=0.9K, CIN=0 J/kg → Cap impact: NONE ===================== ⚡ SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ASSESSMENT ---------------------------------- 🟡 OVERALL THREAT: MARGINAL 🧊 Hail Threat : CONDITIONAL - Hail possible IF initiated 💨 Wind Threat : CONDITIONAL - Strong winds IF initiated 📊 Storm Mode : Weak convection possible ============================================================ 🚨 AUTOMATED SEVERE WEATHER FLAGS ============================================================ ⚡ SHEAR-DOMINANT SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT - Organized storms likely severe 🇦🇺 AUSTRALIAN SEVERE ENVIRONMENT ASSESSMENT ------------------------------------------- 🇦🇺 AUSTRALIAN CLIMATOLOGY (Allen et al. 2011): CAPE × S06^1.67 = 17,161 ✗ Below severe threshold (18,000) ⚡ EXCEPTIONAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT: 0-6km shear: 21.4 m/s (EXCEEDS BoM 'very favorable' 18 m/s) → VERY FAVORABLE for supercells → Shear-dominant environment: CAPE modest (103 J/kg) but shear compensates → Allen et al. (2011): Strong shear compensates for modest CAPE in Australia ℹ️ EMPIRICAL INDEX ASSESSMENT: K-Index: 34 → Thunderstorms very likely (80%+ probability) Parcel-based CAPE: 103 J/kg (low) ℹ️ Empirical forecasting: → K-Index has skill in tropical/coastal environments → Traditional index complements parcel-based analysis === PARCEL BASIS === Surface Parcel : T=22.1°C, Td=21.3°C Mixed-Layer Parcel : Lowest 100 hPa average Most-Unstable : 1012 hPa (max θe in lowest 300 hPa) ==================== ⚠️ GIGO AUDIT: WARNINGS DETECTED --------------------------------- Status: WARNING - 5 issue(s) found ⚠ K-Index=34 suggests storms, but MLCIN=106 J/kg → strong cap ℹ MUCAPE (512) > Surface CAPE - check for elevated instability ⚠ EVENING: MLCIN=106 J/kg but SBCIN=0 J/kg ⚠ DCAPE=506 J/kg too low for significant microbursts ⚠ Evening (22:00) but surface only 22.1°C - seems low → Storms unlikely without strong forcing - check SBCIN for evening storms → Most unstable parcel may be above surface - evaluate elevated convection risk → Surface parcel unrestricted (low SBCIN) - use SBCAPE for evening threats → Downgrade wind threat assessment → Wyoming surface may differ from actual obs - check BOM current conditions Note: Wyoming data may differ from actual BOM observations. Consider cross-checking with official BOM products. 🌡️ TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ----------------------- Open-Meteo Forecast • Max Today : 27.0°C (+4.9°C from current) Sounding Physics • Max Possible : 23.6°C (thermodynamic ceiling) • Max Realistic (operational): 27.0°C — Reason: coastal; Confidence: LOW • Heating Needed : EL-based estimate (+1.5°C potential) • Confidence : MODERATE • Min Estimate : N/A • Note : Use morning sounding for overnight minimum → CAP STATUS: UNCAPPED — No cap detected - storms possible if triggered 🌧️ RAINFALL POTENTIAL ---------------------- Potential : MARGINAL Estimated Range : 5-15 mm Confidence : MODERATE Note : K=34, PWAT=49mm, MLCAPE=103 — storms conditional on trigger Coastal Note : Sea-breeze convergence may increase local totals by 20-30% 🔥 CAP ANALYSIS -------------- Cap Status : No cap detected Surface Temp : 22.1°C LFC : 980 hPa (109m AGL) ⚡ INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ------------------------ SBCAPE : 512 J/kg (surface) (Marginal) Note: SBCAPE uses undiluted surface parcel (may be high) MLCAPE (100mb) : 103 J/kg (mixed-layer (100 hPa)) (Weak) MLCIN (100mb) : 106 J/kg Lifted Index (LI) : -1.7°C (surface) (Marginally unstable) MLLI (100mb) : +0.6°C (mixed-layer (100 hPa), preferred) (Stable) LCL Height : 109m AGL (1001 hPa) LFC : 980 hPa EL : 346 hPa 📋 PARCEL DIAGNOSTICS -------------------- Surface Parcel: CAPE: 512 J/kg | LI: -1.7°C CIN: 0 J/kg LCL: 109m LFC: 980 hPa Mixed-Layer (100mb): CAPE: 103 J/kg | LI: +0.6°C CIN: 106 J/kg LCL: 745m LFC: 514 hPa EL: 509 hPa Most-Unstable (300mb): CAPE: 512 J/kg at 1012 hPa CIN: 0 J/kg LCL: 109m LFC: 980 hPa EL: 346 hPa 📊 PARCEL COMPARISON TABLE ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Parcel Type CAPE (J/kg) CIN (J/kg) LCL (m) LFC (hPa) LI (°C) ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Surface 512 0 109 980 -1.7 Mixed-Layer (100mb) 103 106 745 514 +0.6 Most-Unstable (1012) 512 0 109 980 N/A ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── 💡 PARCEL SELECTION GUIDANCE (ESTOFEX 1.2.4): → ESTOFEX uses MIXED-LAYER parcel - representative of boundary layer → Preferred for most convective environments 🎯 CAPE CONVERGENCE ENSEMBLE (Multi-Method Validation) ----------------------------------------------------- ℹ️ METHODOLOGY: Parcel table values (SBCAPE, MLCAPE, MUCAPE) = GROUND TRUTH Convergence 'Recommended' values = VALIDATION (median across methods) PURPOSE: Test if CAPE calculations are stable across method variations - High convergence: Parcel table values are RELIABLE - Low convergence: CAPE estimates are METHOD-DEPENDENT (use with caution) WHICH VALUE TO USE? → Use PARCEL TABLE values for forecasting (primary calculation) → Use CONVERGENCE for confidence assessment (validation only) Overall CAPE Confidence: VERY LOW [**---] (2/5) ⚠ Uncertainty in: Surface CAPE, Mixed-layer CAPE, Most-unstable CAPE Surface CAPE: Parcel table: 512 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 517 J/kg (validation, 1 methods) Mixed-Layer CAPE: Parcel table: 103 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 182 J/kg (validation, 3 methods) Stability: 42.6% (std/mean) → LOW ⚠ Divergent: mixed_50hPa=309 Most-Unstable CAPE: Parcel table: 512 J/kg (ground truth, includes coastal corrections) Convergence median: 517 J/kg (validation, 1 methods) ⚠️ WARNING: Low convergence indicates CAPE estimates are METHOD-DEPENDENT → Forecast uncertainty is HIGH - results vary with calculation choices → Use MEDIAN values with caution - consider full range of estimates 🌡️ ESTOFEX THERMODYNAMIC ANALYSIS ---------------------------------- Primary Parcel : Mixed-Layer CAPE : 103 J/kg CIN : 106 J/kg LCL : 745 m AGL LFC : 514 hPa EL : 509 hPa 700-500 hPa Lapse : 5.2 °C/km 850-500 hPa Lapse : 5.5 °C/km Surface T-Td : 0.8 °C ✓ favorable Cap Status : No significant cap 📊 INTERPRETATION: • Weak instability - only isolated weak storms possible • ✓ Favorable low-level moisture for convection • ⚠ CAPE alone insufficient - requires lift mechanism and wind shear • ⚠ Parcel theory limitations: ignores entrainment, water loading, dynamics 📉 DOWNDRAFT PARAMETERS ---------------------- DCAPE : 506 J/kg (Moderate) Max Downdraft V : 31.8 m/s (115 km/h) Formula : V_max = sqrt(2 × DCAPE) DCAPE Efficiency : 0.99 (Downdraft-dominated - strong outflow likely) Ratio : DCAPE / CAPE Evaporative Cool : Low (Small T-Td spread limits evaporative cooling) Microburst Risk : MARGINAL - Gusty outflows Type : Wet (rain-loaded downdrafts) Max Gust Potential : 50-60 km/h if heavy rain core develops 🌀 WIND SHEAR & HELICITY ----------------------- 0-1km Bulk Shear : 8.6 m/s 0-3km Bulk Shear : 16.3 m/s 0-6km Bulk Shear : 21.4 m/s Bunkers Right Mover: 16.5 m/s from 307° 0-1km SRH : 106 m²/s² 0-3km SRH : 376 m²/s² === EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER (SPC Methodology) === Effective Base : 0 m AGL (1012 hPa) Effective Top : 2424 m AGL (762 hPa) Layer Depth : 2424 m Effective SRH : 320 m²/s² (VERY HIGH - significant tornado potential) Effective Shear : 10.5 m/s Note : Effective SRH discriminates BEST for significant tornadoes (SPC) 📊 COMPOSITE PARAMETERS ---------------------- STP (Tornado) : 0.40 (MLCAPE) / 1.97 (SBCAPE) → Minimal tornado risk SCP (Supercell) : 1.73 (MLCAPE) / 1.46 (SBCAPE) → MODERATE supercell risk EHI 0-1km : 0.34 → Minimal EHI 0-3km : 1.20 → MODERATE SHIP (Sig. Hail) : 1.25 (MODERATE - 2"+ hail possible) Freezing Level : 4091 m (4.09 km) 500-700mb Lapse : 5.2 °C/km Note : SHIP is NOT hail size - it's a probability discriminant (SPC) SigSvr (Craven) : 2206 (LOW) Formula : MLCAPE × 0-6km shear Reference : Craven et al. (2003) - Simple product discriminant 0-3km CAPE : 49 J/kg (LOW) Note : Low-level CAPE favors tornado formation (SPC) 📈 TRADITIONAL INDICES --------------------- K-Index : 34 (Widespread thunderstorms, severe potential) Total Totals : 43 Precip. Water : 49.4 mm Surface T/Td : 22.1°C / 21.3°C RADIO PROPAGATION (VHF/UHF) --------------------------- Propagation Mode : DUCTING DX Potential Score : 70/100 (EXCELLENT) Range Factor : 4-6× normal dn/dz Gradient : -630 N-units/km (VERY STRONG) Max Refractivity : 374 N-units Ducting Layer : 738-838m (THIN DUCT) Description : Trapped wave propagation - exceptional range Affected Bands : • 6m (50 MHz) : STRONG ducting - exceptional DX (500+ km) • 2m (144 MHz) : VERY STRONG ducting - most affected band • 70cm (432 MHz) : VERY STRONG ducting - excellent trapping • 23cm (1.3 GHz) : STRONG ducting - significant enhancement Note: Shallow duct — Higher frequencies (2m/70cm) trap most effectively DX Range Estimates (10m antenna height): ✗ 6m ( 50 MHz): Not trapped (wavelength > duct cutoff) ⚠ 2m ( 144 MHz): 99 km ( 5.4× LOS) - 1 mode(s), MARGINAL ✓ 70cm ( 432 MHz): 500 km (27.1× LOS) - 2 mode(s), GOOD ✓ 23cm (1296 MHz): 500 km (27.1× LOS) - 47 mode(s), EXCELLENT Best Bands : 70cm, 23cm Note : Assumes duct extends along path — verify with propagation maps N-Profile plot saved: n_profiles/brisbane_20251115_1200Z.png 📸 VISUALIZATION --------------- Wind barbs (BASIC): 1553 levels, step=38, plotting 40 barbs Basic Skew-T saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_plots/brisbane_20251115_1200Z.png Wind barbs (ENHANCED): 1553 levels, step=38, plotting 40 barbs Enhanced Skew-T saved: skewt_plots_enhanced/brisbane_20251115_1200Z.png Hodograph saved: hodographs/brisbane_20251115_1200Z.png Heated forecast skipped: evening sounding (forecast not applicable) Analysis saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_analysis/brisbane_20251115_1200Z.txt Public summary saved: /home/backless/skewtpy/skewt_analysis/brisbane_20251115_1200Z_summary.txt ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────